As a skeptic, I reject a sole time series of the past as an indication of future performance; I need a lot more than data. My major reason for this is the rare event, but I have others. On the surface, my statement here may seem to contradict earlier discussions, where I blame people from not learning enough from history. The problem is that we read too much into shallow recent history, with statements like ‘this has never happened before,’ but not from history in general… [H]istory teaches us that things that never happened before do happen.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb
